News - Dairy Articles

The dairy market is experiencing soaring prices due to restricted global milk supply, with the EU, US, and New Zealand all facing tight supply situations. Farmers in New Zealand are expected to have a profitable 2021/22 season with record milk prices, although some may not achieve record profitability due to higher cost structures. Changes to Fonterra's capital structure are also anticipated. In the beef market, global supplies are expected to remain constrained in 2022, with reduced production in the US due to drought and tight profit margins. Consumer demand for beef is expected to remain elevated, particularly from China. The global pandemic continues to impact food markets and supply chains, leading to transitory supply chain costs, inflationary pressures, and changes in consumer purchasing behaviour. The Chinese market is experiencing strict lockdown policies and economic uncertainties, which may affect food markets. E-commerce in the food system has seen significant growth. In the urea and grain markets, global urea prices are expected to decline over the next six months, although local prices in New Zealand will likely remain higher than in 2021. Global prices of corn, soybeans, and wheat are expected to stay relatively high. La Nina weather conditions intensified in December 2021 and are expected to continue affecting New Zealand's climate in the first quarter of 2022. Higher temperatures, warm nights, and high humidity are forecasted, along with near-normal rainfall in the east and potential cloud cover in other areas. Soil moisture levels are expected to be near normal in some regions but below normal in others. Hotspot regions with soil moisture deficits have been identified, which may be relieved by tropical cyclone activity, but this also brings the risk of heavy rainfall and flooding.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) has increased the likelihood of La Niña conditions re-emerging, which will bring above-average rainfall to northern and eastern Australia during summer. This increased rainfall is beneficial for southern regions, supporting grain fill and pasture growth. However, it hampers harvesting in northern productive regions, affecting the winter crop. Beef prices have been rising, but there are concerns about price pressure as global prices stabilize and the Australian dollar strengthens. Dairy commodity prices are being supported by supply pressures, with slow milk production in New Zealand and Australia. New Zealand experienced a slow start to its season, and Australian milk production is down. Despite challenges in supply chains and rising costs, there is ongoing demand for dairy products in Southeast Asia, particularly from China. The Chinese foodservice sector is still recovering from the impact of the Delta variant, affecting consumer spending and travel. Rabobank forecasts a 5% decrease in Australian winter crop production compared to the previous season, but it remains 25% above the five-year average. Global wheat and corn prices have been rising, driven by positive demand signals and reduced stocks. Fertilizer supply concerns, particularly in China, pose challenges for phosphate and nitrogen availability. High global grain prices are expected to continue, while urea prices may fall depending on factors such as gas supply and commodity prices.

In September, beef prices experienced modest gains along with other commodities like lamb, wheat, and sorghum. The overall exuberant pricing complex led to a 1.5% increase in the agricultural index for the month. However, the decline in barley, sugar, and wool prices was limited to below 1.5% due to the softening of the Australian dollar. Despite some fluctuations, beef prices remained strong, and ongoing demand, coupled with above-average rainfall forecasted for eastern Australia, supported continued high cattle prices. Global milk prices saw an upward trend in September, driven by a slowdown in milk production in key regions and strong import demand from Asian buyers. While milk production in the United States and Europe experienced some setbacks, Australia's milk production for the 2021/22 season started sluggishly due to wetter-than-normal conditions impacting pasture growth. However, a weaker Australian dollar against the US dollar provided favourable export returns for the dairy industry. The market outlook suggests a slow crawl to recovery for Australia's food market, with a focus on a gradual economic bounce back. Global commodity prices, including grains, showed mixed performance in September. CBOT wheat prices increased, while CBOT corn remained flat, and CBOT soybeans declined. Locally, wheat prices were projected to remain supported by a tight global market, especially for high protein wheat. Canola prices reached new highs due to a global shortage, but a resupply and lower prices were anticipated for the next season. Concerns about Chinese policies, electricity shortages, and limits on fertiliser exports from China added pressure to the supply of agricultural inputs, impacting Australian farmers' preparations for the upcoming season.

The Rabobank Rural Commodity Price Index reached its highest level on record, driven by strong demand and price increases in global beef markets. Australian beef prices rose, contributing to the overall spike in commodity prices. With ongoing positive seasonal conditions and favourable drivers expected to continue, the outlook for the Australian beef industry looks promising. Cattle prices remain strong, and there are indications of a rebuilding cattle herd, although cattle availability is still relatively low. Global dairy markets have been impacted by disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with consumer mobility restrictions and varying vaccine rollouts affecting dairy import markets. Australian and New Zealand dairy markets have experienced channel disruptions and shifts in consumer purchasing behaviour due to lockdowns. Despite these challenges, online grocery sales have continued to grow, indicating a shift in consumer behaviour. Milk production in Australia and New Zealand has seen fluctuations, with favourable conditions for the upcoming peak season expected to play a crucial role in price direction. Global commodity prices, including grains, experienced a downward trend in August. However, Australian cropping regions have seen positive production prospects and yield upgrades. Prices for wheat, barley, and canola in the local market have remained strong, supported by strong global prices and continued demand, particularly in Southeast Asia. Fertiliser prices have been high, impacting farmers' decisions on application rates. While there are short-term signals of oversupply, price reductions may be limited due to high commodity prices and global balance sheet tightening.

Beef prices remained strong due to strong demand for exports and constrained supply. The Rabobank Rural Commodity Index was kept at high levels by new records for the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator. Heavy rainfall in Australia's agricultural regions during July improved quarterly rainfall deciles and supported grain production. However, hot and dry weather in North America negatively affected spring wheat and canola crops. Dairy commodity prices experienced a decline, with the Global Dairy Trade auction reporting its seventh consecutive fall. Despite this, prices remained elevated compared to the previous year, and global milk supply was increasing in key export regions. In Australia, milk production showed signs of growth, and the outlook for rainfall in dairy regions was positive. The global food retail market showed some recovery, with a lift in sales in June compared to the previous month. However, the foodservice sector experienced disruption due to lockdowns in major cities. The US foodservice channel saw significant growth compared to the previous year, but rising COVID-19 cases posed challenges. In New Zealand, a draft report highlighted competition issues in the grocery sector, which could lead to changes in market structure. High prices and tight supply characterized the inputs market, particularly fertilizers. Prices for urea, DAP, and glyphosate increased significantly, driven by high demand and production costs. Shipping disruptions and delays added further challenges. The Australian dollar remained weak despite strong commodity prices, influenced by the Reserve Bank of Australia's dovish stance and the impact of lockdowns on the economy. The global ocean freight market continued to face challenges, resulting in high prices and lengthy delivery times. Increased demand for ships driven by global commodity demand contributed to the congestion. These conditions were expected to persist until at least the end of the year.

Beef prices in Australia remained strong throughout June, with limited supplies and strong competition among buyers driving up prices. The Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) reached a new record of AUc 932/kg cwt, and the average retail beef price was AUD 23.87/kg in Q1, nearing the inflation-adjusted record set in 1979. Despite expectations of increased supplies in the future, it is currently difficult to foresee any factors that would cause prices to drop significantly. However, May beef exports were still down compared to previous years, primarily due to a 25% decrease from the five-year average. The cyber-attack on JBS and subsequent plant shutdowns also affected cattle slaughter numbers, leading to a decline in beef exports. Dairy commodity prices in Australia experienced a slight softening in June but remained elevated compared to the previous year. The weakening Australian dollar provided some support for dairy exporters. Milk production in the United States and New Zealand showed positive growth, while Australian milk production remained stagnant. However, the forecast for the new season suggests a wetter spring ahead, which could potentially support milk production growth. The record milk pricing in the market for 2021/22, driven by favourable minimum milk price offers and step-ups, is expected to result in a profitable season for the Australian dairy farm sector. The upcoming spring flush in New Zealand is also anticipated to contribute to market dynamics. Grain markets experienced price increases in June, with global fertiliser prices rising by 5-20% and urea prices increasing across Australia. Sustained increases in global prices, tight shipping availability, and strong rainfall and soil moisture levels supported the demand for grains. However, local importers faced challenges due to the weak currency, which affected their purchasing power. The uncertainty caused by the changing expectations for the USD led to relative weakness in commodity currencies, including the AUD. Despite these challenges, the strong economic data in Australia and expectations of a recovery in the AUD suggest that grain prices may remain high in the near term, with further upside possible if local supply tightens.

The Commodity Index rose 0.8% in May, driven by gains in the price of grains and oilseeds. The index remained strong due to low global stocks and dryness in the Northern Hemisphere. Local wheat prices struggled to follow global markets, but winter crop planting in Australia is expected to grow 2% this year, with canola hectares seeing the biggest increase. Overall, Australia is on track for another above-average production year in beef, dairy, and grains. In the dairy sector, global spot markets remained stagnant in May, with Oceania origin commodity prices mostly flat. However, a price correction is expected in the later stages of 2021 due to an anticipated softening of Chinese import demand. Supply growth across major export regions has been limited, with positive growth in South America but tempered by rising feed costs and inflation. Australian milk production has expanded slightly, and healthy profit margins are expected for dairy farmers in the upcoming season. Cattle prices continued to trade strongly in April, supported by limited numbers of finished cattle and strong restocker demand. Slaughter numbers and beef exports were down compared to the previous year, with the exception of increased volumes to South Korea and the Middle East. Argentina's temporary suspension of beef exports may cause some disruption but is not expected to have a significant impact on global markets. As for grains, global urea prices are expected to ease in the southern winter, but local prices may be influenced by local demand and supply. Ocean freight prices remain at record highs, impacting product costs at the farmgate. The Australian dollar is projected to trade close to its current level against the USD, supported by a strong economy.